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Is Miami’s Defense Struggling Because of Small Ball?
Last year the Heat were a +4 on defense. This means per 100 possessions Miami held its opponent to four points less than the average NBA team. This year they’re a -1. That’s a five point per 100...
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NBA Draft Projection Model and More
Edit: I’ve substantially changed the model since this post. I have also settled on using just height for the time being because any added accuracy by measurements is minimal. For more information, see...
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The Fifteen Greatest Seattle Sonics Ever
In honor of the impending triumphant return of the Sonics, my boyhood heroes and all time favorite professional team, I’m revamping an old post I did a while back called “The Greatest Sonics of All...
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Draft Rankings!!
After a lot of messing around with the numbers and regressions, I finally have something that I feel comfortable releasing. Of course, I’m obsessive by nature, so this certainly won’t be the final...
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Draft Model Update: Refined Age
This is gonna be a quick post, but I need to make note of this change because even though it seems fairly minimal, it’s actually relatively substantial. In my research, I have found again and again...
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I Wouldn’t Take Ben McLemore Number One If I Were You
Don’t get me wrong. I think McLemore is a solid wing prospect. He’s a fantastic athlete and his shooting stroke is great. But I’m just not sure he has the characteristics of a player that a team wants...
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Underrated Draft Prospects: Trey Burke
Burke certainly is an interesting prospect. Everyone and their mothers recognize him as the best point guard in college, he’s a sophomore by the way, and yet all of the big time draft sites peg him as...
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Shabazz Muhammad: The Second Coming …of O.J. Mayo
The NCAA stirred controversy earlier this season when it initially ruled Shabazz Muhammad, the best prospect in the nation, ineligible due to slave amateurism violations. This all added to the Shabazz...
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Some Past Results
I’ve had a lot of people asking me about previous years, etc. of my draft model, so I thought I’d post a couple of things. Here’s the top twenty prospects from last year and the top ten at each...
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The Importance of Position on Offense and Defense
Perimeter players aren’t as important on defense as bigs. And bigs aren’t as important on offense as perimeter players. I’ve heard this assertion made quite a few times. I’ve even made it myself. But...
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Pre-1974 Pace And More
Before 1974 they didn’t track turnovers or offensive rebounds for NBA teams. Because of this, we are missing pieces necessary to estimate pace, which can be super helpful in understanding team...
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It’s a Good Year to Move Up in the Draft
Generally speaking, I would discourage any team from trading its assets to acquire a higher draft pick. This is because, frankly, there just isn’t a lot of value in most drafts. Only a handful of good...
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Is Miami’s Defense Struggling Because of Small Ball?
Last year the Heat were a +4 on defense. This means per 100 possessions Miami held its opponent to four points less than the average NBA team. This year they’re a -1. That’s a five point per 100...
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Draft Model Update
I have made significant changes to the draft model; it’s very refined at this point and much improved from the previous iteration. To avoid confusion, I’m going to make this the go-to post and take...
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NBA & NCAA Stats Page
I added a new page called NBA & NCAA Stats (you can see it up in the top right corner). I’m basically using it to keep all the stats that I think are interesting or helpful but either can’t be...
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Estimated Impact
While I initially introduced my player rating, Estimated Impact, a while ago, I recently gave it a pretty extensive makeover and I’m generally pleased with results. My goal was basically to create a...
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NBA Power Rankings
These power rankings are meant to reflect how each team would be expected to perform in the playoffs if they started today (e.g., when each team uses a shortened bench). The scale is point margin per...
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Draft Model Update: Refined Age
This is gonna be a quick post, but I need to make note of this change because even though it seems fairly minimal, it’s actually relatively substantial. In my research, I have found again and again...
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NBA Stats
NBA Estimated Impact A player rating that uses elements from the box score only. 1952-2014 Estimated Impact 1952-2014 Playoffs Estimated Impact Career Estimated Impact Weights for box score elements...
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